Thursday, November 19, 2015

Short Biography of Real Estate in India

Starting late 90's, people started realizing that land is a valuable commodity that does not command the prices that it should. At the same time, there was a steady rise in the affordability of the general populace. More and more people started to buy houses and builders started building houses and commercial complexes to deliver to this demand. Prices started moving upwards especially around metros where the top paying jobs were concentrated. People with a penchant for risk and money to spend starting trading in houses - buying houses prior or near launch date of the project with no intention of ever staying there and flipping it when the project neared completion. This created artificial demand. Builders started constructing ever more office spaces and housing complexes to cater to this demand. Prices kept rising. This juggernaut kept rolling with a few hiccups till about 2010.

Fast forward to 2015. Look around you. Any educated professional now owns at least 1 house of his/her own. Some own more than 1. As prices have flat-lined, the artificial speculative demand has been swept away and what remains is a lot of speculators with houses that they cannot sell, even more builders with inventories that they cannot offload, and a mountain of real estate loans taken by these same builders that can no longer be serviced.

What happens now.

New product launches have slowed and will continue at a reduced pace. The existing inventory will slowly be taken up as more people move up the economic chain. Prices, which had touched stratospheric levels close to 2010 will continue to languish and even decline due to the demand supply mismatch. For the industry - good days are well behind it now. With the real estate bill likely to be enforced and with black money being sucked out by an activist government, all real estate firms are well and truly past the heady days of mid 2000s. Returns will now be be slow and unexciting.

The industry has now long died as an investment vehicle. Not to ever kick back to life. Mark these words - "Good days are never to be back for real estate. Not now, not in 5 years, not ever. Some people rode the real estate bus, most missed it. To those waiting on the bus stop to catch the next bus in will likely wait forever now"

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Chelsea - The road ahead...

Well, only the football faithful will understand what I'll be talking about here, the others are advised not to read further if you have something better to do.
For quite a while this season, I have been concerned over the inconsistency shown by Chelsea and the season has started to go downhill for them after their defeat to Inter. I forecast a single trophy season again for Chelsea, and the only cabinet that will soon need expanding will be the one holding all the FA cups and nothing more. Chelsea these days reminds me more of the South African cricket team of a few years back, the biggest chokers in the game. SA have partly shed their tag since then, and Chelsea needs to do something to get out of the rut as well. Watching the same squad dish out more or less the same brand of football over time has made me question the club's reluctance not to develop some of its young talents over the years. For as much as Ancelotti has spoken about his desire to develop young talent this season, other than one FA cup game when 3 youngsters were fielded, he hasn’t really walked the talk. I can understand that a club like Chelsea has to win trophies with big names in the side, but it needs to develop its academy and have a sensible wage structure in place to become a long-term story. Abrahamovich has recently spoken of his desire to make the club self sustainable, which is a tough act to follow, given the space constraint in the stadium. A larger stadium is the need of the hour and if Stamford Bridge cannot be expanded (as many articles have made clear given the property disputes in and around the stadium), then a new location should be scouted rather than increasing ticket prices, which are already multiple times of some of the smaller sides in the country. But most of all, the club needs a look at its wage structure. Chelsea next season should bid farewell to some of its highly paid stalwarts who have not really produced a commensurate level of performance to justify their stay. So out with Deco, Farreira, Baletti, Ballack and Hilario for starters. Replacements should not be sought externally though but internally. Deco and Ballack's absence should be anyway made up when Essien returns from injury. Add Nemanja Matic to the fold, a youngster that Chelsea invested in last year and produced re-assuring performances whenever called on to do so, and Chelsea does not need any more cover. The best football Chelsea produced was when Duff and Robben terrorized Premier League defences by attacking the wings and interchanging positions. That time was 4 years ago and arguably Chelsea's biggest transfer gaffe till date hasn’t been the acquisition of Shevchenko but the sale of Robben to Madrid, something that was repeated by the La Liga club as Robben has become the fulcrum of Bayern's commanding performances recently. The Chelsea of the day needs that flair. While many would argue that the flame still burns in Joe Cole, I feel he needs a big kick up his backside to really up the level of his performances which have bordered on dismal after return from injury. This is where Chelsea should find a reinforcement, a name that immediately comes to mind being that of Dzagoev. That he is not off the radar means his signature will not come cheap but since he plays in one of the clubs which is influenced by Abrahamovich in the Russian league means that the deal should be finalized if he provides his blessings to do so. Chelsea has an abundance of talent in the middle of the pitch for it not to go looking elsewhere. Stoch should be recalled from FC Twente where he has become one of the dominant players this season, and Kakuta should be finally given a chance to show his real talent. With Molouda and Zirkoff thrown in as well, there is no dearth of flair in the Chelsea squad. Up front, despite talk all season, no reinforcements are required at all. Drogba's level of performance has convinced me that he is in his prime and with Anelka beside him in attack, a big name is not required. Anelka should ideally play in the space just behind Drogba, because for all his deadly accuracy, it is his movement off the ball and the dummy runs which makes him invaluable to the side. Add to the mix Sturridge, Kolou and Borini and Chelsea need no more strikers. Perhaps a case for extending Di Santo's loan spell makes sense, but to a better side than Wanderers who just play long balls in a hope to score. Maybe a Fulham or Wigan will make him a much better player and that is the way he should head. Bosingwa's return from injury means that Ivanovic can return to the centre of the pitch alongside Terry, with a slowing Carvalho still a dominant force but one that should be protected more often. It is a pity that Alex is in a side that has so many world class talents, for if he were in any other side, even United, he would have been a natural starter this season. But making sure he stays should allow Chelsea not to dip into their pockets for a defensive signing. There is a case for a left sided defender to be bought as a backup for Cole allowing Zirkoff to play further up the pitch, a position I believe he will perform much better in. A young goalie as a backup to Cech and Turnbull, who looked accomplished in the Inter defeat, should also be thought about. I reckon, these are the only 3 additions that Chelsea really needs, and the likes of Aguero who were demanding 200k a week as wages should be left for City or Madrid to pick up. No wholesale changes are required, but a wholesale change in the attitude is definitely the need of the hour.

Wednesday, March 03, 2010

London!!

Its my second time here in this brilliant city called London. It is perhaps as chilly as my last visit near Christmas and that suits me well, I will take chilly over humid and warm any time. When I compare this place to Mumbai, there are many many many things that are better here than in Mumbai; clean air and environment, polite and warm people, awesome food and drinks, better roads, less of crowds, better party and night scene, much better shopping arcades, wide open and green spaces…and I can go on and on. Yesterday I started thinking of things that are better in India or Mumbai and this place cannot match. And I came up with surprisingly few. If I take away the friends and family that I have in my home country, I can think of pretty much nothing that India can offer me that this place cannot match and better. Yes, maybe the quality of advertisements here needs to be improved. UK has some of the most appalling scripts and actors in the commercials, and our adverts back home are way better any day, even the DoCoMo jingle crap will beat back anything that these guys show on air. Maybe the operational timings of the shops can be better, I mean downing shutters at 7pm on a weekdays is hardly justified. But then that’s it. I almost feel like not going back to India at all. Of course, that’s not in my hands and I will duly complete my 3 week stint and head back to the city of crappy infrastructure, crowds, dust and humidity. So maybe I should enjoy my time here the best I can. And it may just be that there are many things that I cannot perceive right now, which might surface if I am here for longer. In that respect 3 weeks at a time may just be the ideal way to come to this place. Like they say, all good things come in small doses!

Sunday, January 17, 2010

Nawabs - Batch of 2005 -- Represented in 2018 by the next generation

He came strutting in, a water bottle strap wound around his neck, supporting a small bright orange colored water bottle which moved from side to side as he walked in through the gate. He stopped looked around the place once, gathering the scene around him and then in one jerk, pulled his shirt out from the shorts, messed up his neatly combed hair and smiled like a devil would on surveying his favorite dwelling place.

"Thats Rajiv jnr", whispered Jacko in Akky's ear. "His dad was a maniac my dad tells me. He would hound poor souls all day long and pounce on the smallest of stumbles. Looks like he has inherited some of the traits from his father."

"Really!! I didnt know he was that way!", said Akky, from up on the tree trunk that he was perched on, legs dangling on either sides, hands holding down a two feet length of wood perpendicular to the trunk in front as if holding a bike handlebar.

"Yes, yes. Didnt your dad warn him from you?"

"No, not really. He tells me some stories, but most of them zooming across the highways on his Hayabusa", and continued twisting the piece of wood, as if steering his imaginary bike through thick traffic.

But Jacko had already drifted away, no longer interested in the conversation. He was busy tracing the path of a young slim figure making way to the school lobby entrance; bag dangling behind, water bottle to one side and busy adjusting the strands of hair that streamed the young face.

"Pffff", said Akky as he looked in the direction of the girl who was attracting his friend's attention. "Not your type!”

But Jacko was off, trance-like in the direction of his new crush-of-the-day.

Akky gave a smirk and resumed his animated imitation of a biker, very much in the thick of the action.

“Not again! Haven’t I told you not to do that? It irritates me to see you and your tomfoolery”, said Kabhi looking at him with an expression of exasperation.

“Why don’t you look away then? I’m sure there are enough souls that you can pester!”

Before a reply could be uttered, the school bell rang and Akky sighed, having to lose his favorite morning pass time. He thought if only his dad would give him a bike as present, instead of the yellow colored cycle that he had and so despised.



“Please settle down everyone and take out your answer books. I hope you have done your homework, rather, if I catch someone who hasn’t done it, it will be two canes for him/her. So let me not catch you with the homework not done!” bellowed the spectacled Mrs Das. She picked up the board duster and brushed off the scrawls on the board, stopping at one drawn on the bottom corner which particularly miffed her. “Who has done this? Who has dared to commit this blasphemy? If there is one thing I won’t tolerate, it is disrespect of the holy Gods and scriptures. Understand!!” The final word was delivered with such force, such hate and anger that first benchers quivered. The last bench was a different story altogether, with most suppressing smiles which bore complete disregard for the bellower.

“Damn!” I couldn’t complete my masterpiece, whispered Sparsh. “It would have been legen…wait for it...”

“Daary!” said Kabhi, beaming a big smile to Sparsh.

“Its dary and not daary idiot! How many times do I have to tell you that!” said a visibly upset Sparsh, having missed his opportunity to complete the one phrase that was his favorite.

“Ji malik. Galti ho gayi!”, this time Kabhi’s smile not carrying the same frivolity as before.

All this was done at suitably low decibel so Mrs Das continued. “If I find the one who has done this, mind you, nothing less than detention for him/her, you get that!”, she rubbed off the scrawl of an inverted cross, complete with a poor artist’s version of Christ. T’was enough though to offend Jakko who looked with positively venomous looks towards Sparsh who returned the look with a broad smile and a middle finger, which irked him even more.

“So, question 1 of yesterday’s homework. Where would you find the Great Barrier Reef?”

“Australia!” was the immediate response from the back of the class, Rajiv jnr, very excited to have answered.

“Who said that without turn! Stand up whoever it was who answered!” at which Rajiv stood up. “Look at you, it’s the first period and your hair all messed up, your shirt half tucking out of your shorts! Don’t your mom and dad see to it that you look proper for school in the morning?! Tuck it in now and comb your hair, and don’t speak out of turn. Raise your hands if you know the answer. Understand?!”

“So next question; where will you find a Great Wall, which is visible from the Moon as well?”

“Australia!” jumped Rajiv jnr from his seat almost before the question was completed.

This time though, Mrs. Das was not in a tolerant mood and made it a point to send Rajiv jnr out of the class for disrespect. “Get out you devil!! You rascal! You will be on my radar come the next parent teacher meeting, you get me! I will not let you off the hook that easily this time!” The class was hushed as the young pupil made his way out of the class. The walk out was silent and solemn but as soon as the class exit was reached, Rajiv jnr did a little pelvic thrust towards Mrs. Das as she had turned away. This sent the class into peals of laughter.

“What’s the matter with this class! I can’t believe what you people find so funny in this punishment. Keep shut or I’ll make sure each one of your parents get a good hearing from me come the parent teacher’s meeting!’, she screamed aloud obviously disgusted. Then calming down she continued, “So now, next question and please raise your hands before answering. We are moving on to some general mathematics questions now.”

A boy starts from home with 20 rupees with him. He has to buy a kilo of potato, tomato, ladyfinger as well as 50 grams of coriander leaves, also known as hara dhaniya in Hindi. All vegetables cost 5 rupees a kilo. So what does he spend at the shop to get all the vegetables?” Hands shot up in the class as this was one of the easiest questions in the homework and everyone wanted to be the hero and answer correctly in class. Mrs. Das picked Ishant though amongst all the students as he seemed almost out of his seat in an excitement to answer. “Yes Mr. Ishant, you seem to be quiet excited about this one, let us all know the answer please”.

“Very simple mam, 15 rupees”, he said with a big smile on his face.

This really annoyed Mrs. Das as she had expected that at least this one would be answered with ease. “Cant you even do a simple math problem Mr. Goyal!”, she bellowed. There are 3 kilos of vegetables to be bought all for 5 rupees per kg, that’s 15 rupees right there. Then he has to buy the dhaniya as well, what about that!! The answer can’t be 15 then now can it?”

“But mam, itni sabzi ke saath toh dhaniya muft milta hai!” said Ishant very matter of factly, to rounds of laughter from the classroom.

“Shut up! you acting smart Ishant! You want to join you friend outside the class as well?”

“But Meerut main toh milta hai. Main toh hamesha….” the answer was drowned out by the squeals of laughter from all round.

This had Mr Goel joining Rajiv jnr outside the class.

“Why were you arguing? I agree you made a good point, but then this was a math question, why argue?”, was Rajiv jnr's first retort as he had also witnessed the scene from outside the class.

“But yaar who pays for dhaniya when you are buying so many vegetables. Papa never pays, and he makes sure that hari mirch is added as well….”

But inside the class, there was mayhem again. This time, it was none other than chubby Bratyush who was standing up, wheezing and one hand holding a handkerchief to his nose.

“Mam, I just can’t sit in this seat, Dheeraj in front of me just applied some green colored grime to his head and it stinks really bad. My wheezing has come back!”

This had Dheeraj hopping mad. “I never says anythings to you when you uses your medicines and creams. My dad use this and his hair is very shining and I am also using this. It doesn’t smell, it is sort of different scents, but not smells.”

“Yes, yes, I agree with Dheeraj, hair is very important”, argued Ghastav, wearing a cap to hide his already diminishing mane.

As more people joined into the ruckus, Mrs. Das felt helpless; and not for the first time in her teaching career. She did nothing to stop the chatter, having given up and feeling utterly helpless. Her gaze scanned the breadth of the room in an effort to find someone who she could find for motivation, someone who she could proudly call a good student, a model student, a benchmark for others to follow. Her look fell and moved on from many students disapprovingly; Mr Thakur, who was enjoying the mayhem, Pepsi in one hand and Bhujia in the other, Labhijeet, who was doing his own version of “tum toh thehere pardesi” with clapping and imitations which could have put any eunuch to shame, Mr. Fachin, who was busy gazing at his Sehwag cards and occasionally looking up to admire the song his good friend Labhijeet was bleating out. And finally her gaze fell on one student and instantly she knew that he was the one she was looking for. Looking dashing in his ironed and starched shirt, neatly done tie and perfectly combed hair, sat Puneet jnr, looking disapprovingly at the others fighting amongst them. Not for nothing was he the topper of the class and the favorite of all and sundry. “If only others could be like him”, she sighed under her breath and turned to the fighting crowd in an attempt to bring the room to order……



Disclaimer -- This does not represent my judgment on anyone. Intended for a light read.

Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Of censors and bans

So I was watching "Enemy at the Gates" the other day. For people who have not seen it, the plot revolves around two sharpshooters in opposite camps in the world war, trying to kill the other and win the proverbial bout. Well, for a such a movie, there is bound to be a sizeable number of shots fired, people bloodied and killed. Saw it a while back and sat down to watch it again, to relive the moments. But all I got to see were dialogues. All the shooting scenes were cut from the script. All the murders and killings removed. Even innocent kisses failed to get past the censor board. I was left with a feeling that was a concoction of fury, amazement and disappointment. I was ready to take a gun and kill the editor point blank, wouldn’t even need the scope.

Not to be undone are my society people. Now mumbai is a city of immigrants. It’s a city where young people out of colleges and universities come to work, earn and burn. When I first came to mumbai, the thing that I liked was that there are every strata of people here, from the poorest to the vulgar rich. Also all ages, from all regions of india with the same objective, make a living. No doubting that this is the financial capital of india. So first there was this tomfoolery about marathi manoos, as if they were rightful owners of the state and jobs should be reserved for them. Well, if that does become their stance, there is no doubt jobs will move elsewhere, bases will shift to other avenues. Good then that this died down. But the more perplexing trend is of no flats to be leased to bachelors. This reason alone makes a more compelling argument for marrying than anything else. But again a higly skewed perspective of the bygone generations. Anywhere else I would have accepted this conservatism, but to witness the same in mumbai is disheartening to say the least. Then there is the gunda mentality of the ruling polity that mandates the name of shops and organizations to be spelled in marathi or hindi. While we yearn to give an outlook of an open society, such censures, bans and diktats just accentuates our hypocricy. Time will only tell if people here truly open up or implode under the weight of all the rules it puts up under various pretexts. And im surely hoping that it is the former rather than the latter that happens.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Boogie Woogie dancin shoes...

There are some triggers which bring back memories of your childhood. different people would have different triggers, some would have food, some places which remind them of their childhood; mine is music. and not just any song, the really old english songs which my dad taped during his time on the ship. in a way it was a great thing that he was in merchant navy and roamed the world at a time when there were no cellphones, no emails to let your near and dear ones know that you are safe. ships were slower, loading/unloading took time, and so my dad had plenty of time to visit all the places and stay at a port city for a week or more. so he taped songs on cassettes, almost obsolete these days. and we played it in our car stereo when we were very young, and one of the only families in the locality to have a vehicle. we went on many tours, every year someplace new, and the tapes would play all through the route. we didnt really know much about songs and music then, but some songs got embedded in my system. everytime i listen to them, it brings back a flood of memories of dad driving the car really fast, me and my brother jostling to get between the two front seats of the maruti and cheering him on to overtake any vehicle we could see ahead. and all the time, the tape was playing in the background. we used to play the same tapes when we got up and got ready for school, such classics as harry belafonte, percy sledge, songs like blue bayou, boogie woogie dancing shoes, songs that i once played recently while driving with friends and was dissapointed at their lack of appreciation for them as they made fun of them and said how they sounded like right out of some 1960 movies. maybe...but then like revisiting my childhood sometimes, and whenever i feel the urge, i just pop open my laptop and get transformed into a kid againwith such timeless melodies!